Iraq: Failure to Plan or Plan for Failure?

This occurred to me yesterday, though I'm sure there are others in the lonely depths of cyberspace who have contemplated the possibility. What if the failure of the U.S. occupation of Iraq is intentional? Noam Chomsky (my idol) has described it as the worst military catastrophe in history. I tend to buy into the common perception of Dubya as a bumbling idiot, but I, like most smart political observers, believe his handlers are extremely canny. But if they're so smart, how could they have screwed up Iraq so royally? I haven't discounted the theory, advanced by Frontline, that Rumsfeld thought he could handle Iraq like he handled Afghanistan, with a small force. Or the likelihood that the stifling corruption of the administration doomed the reconstruction from the start, by handing it over to such boy scouts as Halliburton and Bechtel. But the massive disaster of the operation makes me wonder if this wasn't the plan all along.

I should preface my theory by mentioning that I have little doubt the invasion of Iraq was motivated by the U.S.'s wish to control the world's second largest oil reserves. This is partly due to my belief in Peak Oil, but mostly due to my aforementioned worship of Prof. Chomsky and his theory of realpolitik (though I've never heard him use the word): the idea that the state acts in the interest of its society's elites.

So if global oil extraction (Most people say "production," but I don't like that 'cuz nobody "makes" oil.) is about to go into terminal decline, then it makes sense to secure the Middle East, site of most of the world's remaining oil and natural gas. But the U.S. gets most of its oil and natural gas exports from Canada, Mexico and Venezuela. We are dependent on the Middle East for our current economy, but a slight increase in fuel efficiency for our car and truck fleets (just 2.7 mpg) would eliminate the need for the 5 million barrels of oil per day we get from that region. Therefore, we can get by without them, even if oil production in the Americas declines soon. (I may be wrong, but I think it already has begun to decline overall.)

I've taken the long way around, but what I'm trying to say is the purpose of the Iraq occupation may not be to secure the oil for American use but merely to deny it to the rest of the world, in particular China and India, but also Western Europe, which has proved irritatingly insolent since the announcement of the Iraq campaign. The evidence? Iraqi oil extraction and export has dropped below pre-war levels. U.S. intelligence before the war predicted it would lead to more terrorism and greater regional instability. As Chomsky has discussed, a truly democratic Iraq would empower the Shi'a majority and could incite Shiites in northern Saudi Arabia (where most of the oil is) to revolt against the ruthless Saud dynasty. According to recent articles in the L.A. Times, Iraq is sliding into civil war, which could ultimately invite intervention from Turkey in order to suppress the independent aspirations of its own Kurdish population, Iran to support the Shi'a and Saudi and other Gulf states to support the Sunnis. Who knows how the American colony, Israel, would react, a truly frightening component since it's the only regional player holding the nuclear card. Now that would be a quagmire. Or, more accurately, a recipe for disaster, maybe Armageddon if China, India, Pakistan, Russia or Europe joined the fray to defend their energy interests.

In that scenario, and any realistic vision of the short-term future of the Middle East, it would become much more difficult, if not impossible, to import oil and natural gas from the region. Sure, the U.S. would lose the (illusory) chance of continued economic growth, but so would all of its rivals. In the end, I wonder if our elites aren't as worried about losing the capitalism endgame as they are about somebody else winning.

My American Dream

I lived in Chicago for two years as a temp. When I worked in the Loop ("downtown"), I'd walk to the El ("elevated train") to go home and pass a flower shop with bouquets displayed on the sidewalk. It made me sad to think that there was no girl waiting at home whom I could surprise with flowers. More than anything I wanted to buy a bouquet of any kind of flower, carry it on the El with a big grin on my face in the sea of guarded strangers and bring it home to my sweetheart, accompanied by those magical words: "Honey, I'm home!" I know it's corny, but I think that's all I've ever really wanted. My artistic and entertainment ambitions seem like passing fancies by comparison. I know they wouldn't sustain me.

Five-Year College Reunion

I attended my five-year college reunion last weekend. I went to Beloit College, a tiny liberal arts institution in Beloit, WI, just off I-90 fifty miles SE of Madison along the Illinois border. They were the best 4 years of my life, even though some of my best friends have since let me way down by no longer returning my calls. Out of laziness or disinterest, I don't know which. But none of those people was at the reunion, which disappointed me actually. I'd really like to reconnect with them and find out what the &@*# happened. (I have some anger issues about this too. Expressing anger has never been my strong suit.)

Many of my friends and acquaintances made it back to campus, which surprised me. I wasn't expecting that many people to travel to Beloit for a weekend of 5-year-old reminiscing. Usually memories take longer to reach the peak of flavor, and Beloit is not a popular destination for a weekend getaway. It's an old factory town long past its prime with more bars than traffic lights.

The First of Many

Welcome to my brand-new blog. I figured the internet didn't have enough aimless ruminations by anonymous office drones with delusions of grandeur. I'm at work right now, so I don't have much time to blather on and on about nothing. I'm surrounded by faceless conversations about work that I don't understand and personal topics I don't really care about. Ah, the life of a cubicle dweller.