I realize I'm a little late to the predictions-for-the-new-year game, but I
didn't wanna let this opportunity pass me by. So let's get to it!
I don't have much to say about the world of sports. I don't feel I'm enough
of an expert to predict who's gonna win the Super Bowl, the Premier League, the
Champions' League, the Stanley Cup, the NBA championship, the World Series or
even the MLS Cup (although, at this point, it seems a fait accompli that
Liverpool will win the Premiership).
But I do have plenty of unearned confidence in my ability to make
predictions in the world of politics! I think Bernie will win the Democratic
nomination. I have been a big-time Bernie Bro for 4 years now, so that's no
surprise. Prognostication is often an exercise in wish-fulfillment.
But it's also a pretty safe bet. After all, he's got the most money, the
best ground game and the most enthusiastic supporters in the Democratic
primary. So why does it feel like I'm going out on a limb?
Because, if Bernie gets anywhere near the nomination, the Democratic Party
establishment will throw their bodies in front of him. Already there are
rumblings of concern from the party elite. Obama has said he will intervene to
prevent Bernie from being the nominee. Good to know the Democrats have such
faith in democracy, eh?
The problem is there are no strong centrist candidates to get behind. Biden
is sundowning like a guy begging to be put out to pasture. He also has almost
50 years of political baggage weighing him down. His anti-busing, pro-war,
pro-Wall Street track record is not a good look this year.
Warren may be the most viable candidate after Bernie, but she's still
beholden to the Establishment, as evidenced by her insistence that she's a
capitalist and not a socialist like Bernie (who's actually a Social Democrat,
but I'll save that for another time). Her attack against Mayor Pete's wine cave
fundraiser backfired when he pointed out that she'd done the same thing for her
senate campaign and then used that money to start her presidential run. She's
also gotten squishy on Medicare-for-All, proposing an incremental approach that
seems doomed to failure.
Buttigieg is just barely old enough to run for president (an arbitrary
obstacle, but still worth noting, I think). The only office he's held was mayor
of South Bend, Indiana, and his term just ended, so that's over with. He ran
for Indiana state treasurer in 2010 and lost by 25 points. Before that, he
worked for McKinsey & Company, an infamous
firm that recently helped the Trump Administration detain
and deport immigrants. He's put together a resume to run in the pre-2016
era, but that now places him in the No Man's Land of Washington centrism.
The only other contender right now seems to be Klobuchar, but she's come out
as a ferocious defender of the status quo, and that's not gonna put you in the
Oval Office next year. I've always thought of her as Mrs. Milquetoast, and
that's still indicative of her platform, even if she's gilded it with a nasty
edge. In the words of Felix Biederman of the Chapo Trap House podcast,
she's become "Amy Too Targaryen."
I think the Democratic primary will play out much like the Republican
primary in 2016. The party elite will scramble to head off the nomination of
the insurgent (Trump/Bernie), but they'll be unable to coalesce around a single
mainstream standard-bearer. Will Obama give a speech like Romney did when he
denounced Trump? Yeah, I could see that, but, if he's smart, he'll keep working
behind the scenes.
Unfortunately for him, though, it’s already too late. The Establishment will
be punished for failing to learn the right lessons from 2016, as their attacks
on Bernie will only make him stronger. Maybe this time, instead of refusing to
face their own growing irrelevance, the Mainstream Media will realize that most
Americans have stopped trusting them. I'm not so naive as to believe they'll
actually mend their ways though. They still have corporate masters to serve,
after all.
And if you thought the media freaked out about Trump, you ain't seen nothin'
yet. They will go FUCKING APESHIT over Bernie. The hand-wringing and
teeth-gnashing will be audible from coast to coast, even without the assistance
of mics, cameras and satellites. They will insist at the top of their lungs
that the Republic cannot be handed over to a socialist. But we've survived 3
years with a guy they insisted would lead us over a cliff, so their pleas will
fall on mostly deaf ears.
The Bernie vs. Trump showdown will put the Establishment in a tight spot. It
will have to choose between the common good and its class interests. (Just to
be clear, Bernie represents the common good and Trump their class interests.
Ok, we good? Good.) All those editorial writers who condemned Trump the last
time around will have to decide if they wanna take another step toward fascism
or pay higher taxes. I don't have much faith that they'll make the right
decision.
But I do have (some) faith that voters will make the right decision. Also, I
think the choice will be made easier by a stock market collapse. Given its
volatility in recent years, I don't think Wall Street can withstand the
prospect of a Bernie presidency. The idea that someone in the White House might
actually hold them accountable for their crimes will send the Dow, the NASDAQ,
the Nikkei, the price of Beanie Babies and all other relevant indices
plummeting this fall, ironically guaranteeing Bernie's election.
The "strong" economy that has propped up Trump will disappear,
replaced by a ravenous schadenfreude. People will be licking their chops
to finally put the screws to the financial elite. There'll be no bailouts this
time, and any politician who lobbies for them will be voted out or receive a
vicious tongue-lashing from their constituents (if they're lucky).
Trump's supposed economic genius will be exposed for the dumb luck that it
is, and the Democrats will actually have a candidate who can capitalize.
There's still the threat of a third-party candidate, most notably Mike
Bloomberg, but he's no H. Ross Perot or even John Anderson. Anyone the
Establishment coughs up to derail the Bernie train will be just another denizen
of No Man's Land, an out-of-touch centrist only able to steal a few votes from
both parties and unable to play the spoiler.
I'm rather superstitious, so I'm a bit nervous posting this. But I wanted to
get my predictions on the record just in case I'm right, so I can wallow in
plaudits. I think it's safe to say, though, that 2020 promises to be an
interesting year. I'd take the advice given by Bette Davis's character in the
classic 1950 film All About Eve: "Fasten your seatbelts. It's going
to be a bumpy [year]."
