2020 Foresight

I realize I'm a little late to the predictions-for-the-new-year game, but I didn't wanna let this opportunity pass me by. So let's get to it!

I don't have much to say about the world of sports. I don't feel I'm enough of an expert to predict who's gonna win the Super Bowl, the Premier League, the Champions' League, the Stanley Cup, the NBA championship, the World Series or even the MLS Cup (although, at this point, it seems a fait accompli that Liverpool will win the Premiership).

But I do have plenty of unearned confidence in my ability to make predictions in the world of politics! I think Bernie will win the Democratic nomination. I have been a big-time Bernie Bro for 4 years now, so that's no surprise. Prognostication is often an exercise in wish-fulfillment.

But it's also a pretty safe bet. After all, he's got the most money, the best ground game and the most enthusiastic supporters in the Democratic primary. So why does it feel like I'm going out on a limb?

Because, if Bernie gets anywhere near the nomination, the Democratic Party establishment will throw their bodies in front of him. Already there are rumblings of concern from the party elite. Obama has said he will intervene to prevent Bernie from being the nominee. Good to know the Democrats have such faith in democracy, eh?

The problem is there are no strong centrist candidates to get behind. Biden is sundowning like a guy begging to be put out to pasture. He also has almost 50 years of political baggage weighing him down. His anti-busing, pro-war, pro-Wall Street track record is not a good look this year.

Warren may be the most viable candidate after Bernie, but she's still beholden to the Establishment, as evidenced by her insistence that she's a capitalist and not a socialist like Bernie (who's actually a Social Democrat, but I'll save that for another time). Her attack against Mayor Pete's wine cave fundraiser backfired when he pointed out that she'd done the same thing for her senate campaign and then used that money to start her presidential run. She's also gotten squishy on Medicare-for-All, proposing an incremental approach that seems doomed to failure.

Buttigieg is just barely old enough to run for president (an arbitrary obstacle, but still worth noting, I think). The only office he's held was mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and his term just ended, so that's over with. He ran for Indiana state treasurer in 2010 and lost by 25 points. Before that, he worked for McKinsey & Company, an infamous firm that recently helped the Trump Administration detain and deport immigrants. He's put together a resume to run in the pre-2016 era, but that now places him in the No Man's Land of Washington centrism.

The only other contender right now seems to be Klobuchar, but she's come out as a ferocious defender of the status quo, and that's not gonna put you in the Oval Office next year. I've always thought of her as Mrs. Milquetoast, and that's still indicative of her platform, even if she's gilded it with a nasty edge. In the words of Felix Biederman of the Chapo Trap House podcast, she's become "Amy Too Targaryen."

I think the Democratic primary will play out much like the Republican primary in 2016. The party elite will scramble to head off the nomination of the insurgent (Trump/Bernie), but they'll be unable to coalesce around a single mainstream standard-bearer. Will Obama give a speech like Romney did when he denounced Trump? Yeah, I could see that, but, if he's smart, he'll keep working behind the scenes.

Unfortunately for him, though, it’s already too late. The Establishment will be punished for failing to learn the right lessons from 2016, as their attacks on Bernie will only make him stronger. Maybe this time, instead of refusing to face their own growing irrelevance, the Mainstream Media will realize that most Americans have stopped trusting them. I'm not so naive as to believe they'll actually mend their ways though. They still have corporate masters to serve, after all.

And if you thought the media freaked out about Trump, you ain't seen nothin' yet. They will go FUCKING APESHIT over Bernie. The hand-wringing and teeth-gnashing will be audible from coast to coast, even without the assistance of mics, cameras and satellites. They will insist at the top of their lungs that the Republic cannot be handed over to a socialist. But we've survived 3 years with a guy they insisted would lead us over a cliff, so their pleas will fall on mostly deaf ears.

The Bernie vs. Trump showdown will put the Establishment in a tight spot. It will have to choose between the common good and its class interests. (Just to be clear, Bernie represents the common good and Trump their class interests. Ok, we good? Good.) All those editorial writers who condemned Trump the last time around will have to decide if they wanna take another step toward fascism or pay higher taxes. I don't have much faith that they'll make the right decision.

But I do have (some) faith that voters will make the right decision. Also, I think the choice will be made easier by a stock market collapse. Given its volatility in recent years, I don't think Wall Street can withstand the prospect of a Bernie presidency. The idea that someone in the White House might actually hold them accountable for their crimes will send the Dow, the NASDAQ, the Nikkei, the price of Beanie Babies and all other relevant indices plummeting this fall, ironically guaranteeing Bernie's election.

The "strong" economy that has propped up Trump will disappear, replaced by a ravenous schadenfreude. People will be licking their chops to finally put the screws to the financial elite. There'll be no bailouts this time, and any politician who lobbies for them will be voted out or receive a vicious tongue-lashing from their constituents (if they're lucky).

Trump's supposed economic genius will be exposed for the dumb luck that it is, and the Democrats will actually have a candidate who can capitalize. There's still the threat of a third-party candidate, most notably Mike Bloomberg, but he's no H. Ross Perot or even John Anderson. Anyone the Establishment coughs up to derail the Bernie train will be just another denizen of No Man's Land, an out-of-touch centrist only able to steal a few votes from both parties and unable to play the spoiler.

I'm rather superstitious, so I'm a bit nervous posting this. But I wanted to get my predictions on the record just in case I'm right, so I can wallow in plaudits. I think it's safe to say, though, that 2020 promises to be an interesting year. I'd take the advice given by Bette Davis's character in the classic 1950 film All About Eve: "Fasten your seatbelts. It's going to be a bumpy [year]."